A week ago Tuesday, Kirsten Gillibrand beat John Sweeney by about three precent in a district (NY-20) that is significantly more Republican then the district currently lead by the incumbent Republican Congressman, John McHugh (NY-23). Why did this happen?

Enrollment Data

Looking below at the enrollment figures, overcoming the Republican incumbents in either of these districts appear nearly impossible. NY-20 is 63.3% enrolled Republican to 36.7% Democrat, while NY-23 is 60% Republican to 40% Democrat. It would seem at initial inspection that winning NY-23 would be somewhat easier then NY-20, abit a difficult task.

New York's 20th Congressional District Enrollment

New York's 23rd Congressional District Enrollment

* D-R Ratio is precentage of Democrats to Republicans, excluding third party and registered in no party.
** Precentages are rounded.

Yet, we now know that party enrollment was not the key to winning NY-20. Kirsten Gillibrand clearly won NY-20 with 3% more then Sweeney, despite having such a large Republican advantage. On the other hand, John McHugh won 26.5% then Johnson. There are some particular things to note from the above enrollment figures before looking below: far more no party registrations and third party registrations in NY-20 then NY-23.

Election Results

New York 20th Congressional Race 2006 Election Results

New York 23th Congressional Race 2006 Election Results

* Precentages rounded, and exclude Eric Sundland who was a write-in candidate for the Libertarian Party and recieved under 100 votes.
** Precentages rounded.

Analysis

There are four major factors that made these races different: fundraising, cheaper media markets, grass roots supports, quality of candidate.

Fundraising

So why did Gillibrand win and Johnson lose? To be sure it was not an easy run for Kirsten Gillibrand, she spend a bit over $1.8 million dollars to defeat Congressman John Sweeney. Sweeney spent over $2.8 million dollars in his attempt to keep his seat. All that money was used to get out an message on who Gillibrand was or in Sweeney's case to try to bolster himself and downplay the challenger.

In the 23rd, Bob Johnson spent $126,240 and John McHugh spent $368,646 in the 2006 election. That's relatively little money compared to the 20th district, and made it difficult for Johnson to get out the word on who he was and why he was different from McHugh. It's particularly compounded based on how his district was drawn.

Cheaper Media Markets

In the 20th district the vast majority of the district is reached by the Albany media markets with exception of more wealthy southern parts of Dutchess County and parts of Delaware County. In the 23rd there are literally five different media markets, all of which partially are out of the district: Syracuse, Watertown/Kingston-Ontario, Herkimer, Albany, Plattsburgh/Burlington. That's a lot of media markets to have to advertise in and it can be very expensive.

For an incumbent to be defeated or for the party which has dominated an area to be defeated, lots of media time has to be bought to make people aware. Bob Johnson may have traversed the 8 or 9 counties in his district for weeks and weeks, but he could never see all the people he needed to see to win the election without a substainal media campaign. He needed not only television ads on constantly, but also radio. Simply said, with $100,000 and 5 media markets, Johnson could not afford to get his message.

Grassroots Support

Like it or not, John Sweeney inspired anger. People simply didn't not like him, and were willing to work hard to get him out of office. The same can not be said with John McHugh. Bob Johnson may have had some very dedicated volunteers and staffers, but never the number of people that Kirsten Gillibrand had on her campaign.

Some of this is regional too. Gillibrand's district was in the Hudson Valley and around Albany, where there are a lot more grassroots people located. While Plattsburgh, Potsdam, and Canton are also hotbeds of activism, it's not at the same level of vigor if only because there isn't the same number of people to get involved with campaigns.

Quality of the Candidate

Kirsten Gillibrand was likable when she was on television, while Bob Johnson was not as likable. Gillibrand appeared to be a friendly person, while Johnson was cold and aloof egghead. Unfortunately, it seems that people's first impression of the candidate when they see it on television can say a lot about who they will vote.

Likewise, John Sweeney was not very photogenic. His attitudes towards the media (which he called a bunch of left-wingers) didn't make him friends. His mustash seemed to undercut his message. John McHugh, on the other hand alway wears very stylish suits, even if he does kind of remind you of some kind of evil rich person.

Conclusions

It's rather amazing that the Democrats could take New York's 20th Congressional District, even with the sweep across our country. New York's 23rd district poses some unique challenges, but it seems with a quality candidate and ample fundraising it could also be taken.

After all, there is no such thing as absolute in politics, and people will vote for candidates outside of their party. Kirsten Gillibrand would not be a Congresswomen if it weren't for a lot of Republicans choosing her over John Sweeney, and sending her district in a new direction.

Special Thanks to Bob Aubin of North Country DFA for the idea of this analysis, and Dr. Thomas Konda of Plattsburgh State Political Science Department for information on media markets. Elections and voter registration data from the State Board of Elections website. Campaign Finance data from Opensecrets.org.