One of the questions that always strikes us activists after a candidate either wins or loses in a political campaign is the reasons why an electorate votes in a specific way. It's particularly interesting when there is surprising results – when voters go a way that you don't expect them to go.

George Amedore may not have had superior ideas or superior resources to make his campaign possible. He was running against a man, Ed Kosiur, who was openly endorsed by his very popular predecessor, Assemblyman Paul Tonko. Democrat Paul Tonko received nearly 85% of the vote in 2006 against largely forgettable Republican candidate.

The district is 40% Democratic, 32% Republican, and 29% voters in third parties and blank. Excluding third party members and blanks, it was 43% Republican and 56% Democratic. It would seem that it would be easy for Democrats to hold onto the district, assuming they had a candidate that matched the voter's interests. Yet, as it was shown on election day, Ed Kosiur was not that candidate.

There is no question that Amedore had a lot of charisma. His literature was impressive. He ran on a simple message of cutting taxes and bringing more jobs to Schenectady. While he was not out on the campaign trail as much as Kosiur, his message was simple and resonated to people. He played on being in the construction industry, and that he was the president of a large construction company that donated labor to good charities including the Ronald McDonald House and Extreme Home Makeover.

He also was not a divisive candidate like Kosiur. Kosiur’s proposed sex-offender residence restriction law proved by to a divisive, putting the residents of Schenectady up against the people living in surrounding suburbs and in Montgomery County. It’s 2,000 feet prohibition on sex offenders from living near schools, parks, and other places where children congregate would have made it impossible for sex offenders to live in Schenectady. Amedore was not afraid to scare people with threats of sex offenders moving next door.

Ed Kosiur also lacked charisma. He might have been a nice guy, but he was plump and not sexy looking. His heart may have been the in the right place, but he didn’t lack the toughness to get down and dirty with Amedore. Kosiur wasn’t a fighter willing to shovel manure and toss it as Amedore’s face, while Amedore had absolutely no problem with criticizing his opponent. This was the formula for failure.

Running against such a tough charismatic candidate, Ed Kosiur was not the right candidate for Democrats. Being a special election there was relatively little time for the parties in Schenectady and Montgomery County to pick a candidate, and without primary voter review, the Democrats ended up with a candidate that was second string. In contrast, Republicans chose Amedore, a local celebratory that was easily electable.