Democratic State Senator Aubertine won the seat last February in a special election after Senator Jim Wright stepped down to become a lobbyist/consultant. Aubertine won in a district whose enrollment is heavily Republican, and won largely based on geographic lines, running against Barclay who lived far south in the district.

The Republicans want the district back, and they know that Aubertine is vulnerable if they get the right candidate. This is their key target seat, as they know Aubertine is the most marginal member of the Senate Democrats at this time. Senate Republicans, in their campaign committee, SRCC have most liklely started working on developing a campaign strategy.

The first key to developing a strategy is to find out what the public is thinking by commissioning an opinion poll at a cost of around $50,000 to a major election consulting firm. While these opinion polls are periodically reported to the Board of Elections periodically and are public records subject to FOIL, candidates usually respect each other and do not request them. Most opposing candidates will commission their own polls and find out similar information—weeks before the FOIL request is fulfilled with old data.

The poll probably asked what issues most concerned voters such as the economy, jobs, healthcare, property taxes, milk prices and so forth. It probably also asked what voters thought of Aubertine's integrity and his performance in office so far. Most interesting would be the theoretical match up races the poll would ask voters about. Most likely the poll compared Aubertine to Barclay (as a baseline), Aubertine to Scozzafava, Aubertine to Wright, and Aubertine to a few other possible Republicans.

Most people probably don't know much about Scozzafava except for those who reside in her Assembly district. Aubertine to Barclay probably didn't change much since the election, although it might have more positively shown Aubertine, as people remember their incumbent Senator's name better. Long-time Senator James Wright probably did best against Aubertine, possibly with Wright beating Aubertine in the poll.

Does that mean the Republicans should rally behind Wright, and start throwing SRCC money at him? Not if they are not politically foolish. Senator Wright probably has more name recognition then Aubertine, and would be the obvious choice for registered Republicans to pronounce their support for publicly on the phone. People could learn a lot more about Aubertine or the other opponents before the election. The poll probably didn't even scratch the surface about the publics' opinion about their former Senator deciding to quit his job so he could cash in on his years of experience as a lobbyist. On the other hand, the poll also would not reflect the recent scandal about Aubertine putting his sister on the payroll, contrary to ethics law.

We don't even know if the Republicans have approached Senator Wright about running. The rumors swirling around him getting back into the election may be a result of this poll. People may have gotten a poll asking about people's thoughts about former Senator Wright, and assumed that he was considering running. It might not have even been a SRCC poll. It could have been one commissioned by Senate Democrats to test the possibilities. At any rate, former Senator Wright certainly wouldn't dismiss such allegations that he is running. If people consider him a potential candidate, it gives him incredible clout and power, even if he has no serious prospects of running this year.

Former Senator Wright has no real reason to run unless the Senate Majority and Senator Bruno has promised him and the people he represents a massive gift that we don't really know about. But I really doubt it. It would take a lot for Senator Wright to make up for the lost potential income he would get being a consultant and eventual lobbyist for major energy, oil, and telecommunication companies that would likely hire him. The most former Senator Wright could make as an Senator is in the low six digits a year, while as a lobbyist, he could easily have an income exceeding a half million dollars.

The only reason I could seriously see him running, is his fear that his lobbying career could flounder if Senate Republicans lose their majority. Big energy, oil, and telecommunication companies have no reason to hire a former Republican Senator if all branches of government will be controlled by Democrats next year. While occasionally Democratic lobbyists will lobby Senate Republicans, there is no room for a Republican lobbyist to prosper when all branches of government are controlled by Democrats.

Republicans are busy analyzing this race to see who will be the best candidate for them. Yet, I strongly doubt no formal decision has come down from the top of the Senate Majority's political communications bureaucracy. We may have to wait this one out.