James Howard Kunstler looks at the issue of Peak Oil and makes some very dark predictions about society as energy becomes more precious and expensive in his 2005 book called the Long Emergency.

What the Book Discusses

In this book he makes the argument that peak oil is real and that so much of our energy consumption is based on oil – be it lighting, heating, construction, transportation, and so forth. He bolsters his argument with a variety of statistics, historical background on the seventies-era oil supply shocks, and questioning the accuracy of self-reported supply data for Middle Eastern wells.

His first major point in the book is fascinating. He argues that we have either reached world peak oil or we will soon reach it. At this point half the world’s oil has been consumed. That oil was the easiest half to get out of the ground, as easy sources of energy are tapped first. It’s only getting more difficult to get energy out of the ground.

That is leading to higher prices and more instability in prices. At some point, he argues, it will take more energy to extract oil from the ground then oil provides in returns. We are dangerously going in the direction as it almost takes a unit of oil energy to extract two energy units of oil. When oil was first discovered, nearly artisan oil wells of sweet Texas crude could be pumped out using only about a unit of energy for each 33 energy units of oil. At some point it becomes a self-defeating proposition to extract oil by using oil power equipment.

Second, he argues that oil will become unaffordable to the average person to live his life the way the typical American does. When that happens our lives will be dramatically altered. His view is fairly dark as he under-estimates the ability of Americans to change their consumption patterns of energy, build more local and efficient societies, and fundamentally alter their way of living.

He argues that Americans will protest and fight the changes of the decline of cheap oil. People will continue to drive their large cars, continue to live in suburbs, and continue to demand cheap products from China. When that is not possible, he argues, that people will revolt instead of trying to build a local and sustainable society.

Kunstler says only hope is that people now start to think about how they are living and start to change. People need to stop consuming as much as they currently do, start living a more local life, and think about a oil-free future. Further, it is argued that there is no other source of energy that can replace our inaccessible demand for energy.

Strong Facts

The book is remarkably well thought out and argued, with strong facts to back it up. It is an interesting read that will keep you reading. Kunstler does restate some of his facts a couple of times in the book, and his argument has some holes in it – including being too dismissive of possible new energy sources and the ability for people to change and adapt to economics.

It’s clear that things will have to change in our country. There is only finite amount of energy out there that we can tap into. He goes through several fuels from natural gas to coal to high-tech energy sources such as frozen-methane, nuclear, and solar energy. All of those sources either are in serious decline or do not produce the amount of energy that we need to currently sustain our lifestyles.

Our Energy Sources

He gave nuclear power too much of a free-ride in his book. Nuclear power is as dependent on a massive oil-based operation to mine, refine, and turn plutonium into uranium for use in a power plant. If we don’t have enough oil to keep the lights on, then nuclear power will be no use. Some estimates suggest that nuclear energy takes as much fossil fuel through it’s lifespan, that it would be more efficient to burn oil directly.

He also was too cynical about renewable energy. He is right to say that renewable sources can’t sustain our lifestyles as they currently exist. But renewable energy can keep the lights on, and energy efficient electronics working, with existing technologies. In the future, as energy prices increase, we have to be more careful how more energy intenstive processes are using energy. Yet, simple economics will force companies to reduce energy consumption to deal with higher energy prices.

Transition is Possible

The free-market economy with government subsidies and assistance to the poor, will ultimately help us transition away from limited resources of oil. People will consume less, when it becomes more expensive to purchase energy. They will drive less, live more locally, and spend more of their wealth in their communities. At that point, our society will not only be more sustainable, but our communities more beautiful for all Americans.